The oil industry experienced three upheavals between 1973 and 1991, which seem to be etched in the memory of the industry's decision makers. Naturally, at the sign of a new crisis, the decision makers like to dip into those tumultuous decades to find ways to deal with the new shock, in addition, of course, to expert reports and forecasts. So, the industry bigwigs turned the pages of history to get a peek into the future of oil price movements after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Israel attacked Gaza in 2023, Iran-linked Houthi rebels pounded tankers crossing the Red Sea in support of Palestine the same year, and Iran rained missiles on Israel in 2024.
It seems that the West is sending a signal to India that it can return to old hostilities unless India toes their line on Russia. It is no surprise that India is being compared with Putin's Russia in terms of targeting 'dissidents' as the West calls these Khalistani terrorists, asserts Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).
The Indian Navy, which regards itself as the 'net security provider' in the Indian Ocean Region, has also stepped up to the plate, with a warship stationed at all times off the Gulf of Aden for counter-piracy tasks. 91 Indian warships have been deployed in the region since 2008, patrolling high risk areas where piracy was rampant.
'Given that the situation is quickly escalating, such attacks will affect the flow of crude in the short term from West Asia' Subhayan Chakraborty and Dhruvaksh Saha report.
'If attacks escalate, there is a risk the Suez Canal may be closed.'
The MSC Aries was last seen on Friday, sailing towards the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Dubai, according to The Times of Israel.
There have been growing global concerns over China's sweeping claims of sovereignty over all of the South China Sea, a huge source of hydrocarbons.
The world needs to wake up to this new dimension of war at sea and be prepared to face the 'unknown enemy' who have the advantage of attacking at their choice of location and time, cautions Commodore Venugopal Menon (retd).
India on Thursday said it is closely watching the unfolding situation in the Red Sea, amid growing global concerns over Houthi militants stepping up attacks on several commercial ships in the region.
Amid escalation in violence in a number of Gulf countries, India on Thursday expressed deep concern over the rise of fanaticism, extremism and terrorism in parts of the Arab region, saying they are tearing apart the fabric of societies as well as affecting regional stability.
"The two sides note that the relationship between Russia and China has progressed to a more advanced interstate cooperation compared to the military-political unions of the Cold War era as it is not bloc or confrontational in nature, nor does it target any third countries," Russia's new agency Tass quoted the document as saying.
South Africa has pulled out of the event citing security concerns in the Gulf region.
Average net asset values of Indian equity funds broadly outpaced their benchmarks in February, buoyed by pre-Budget hopes, but overall gains were muted by jitters over a possible Gulf conflict, analysts said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu termed it the 'largest cooperation project in our history', one that would 'change the face of the Middle East, Israel, and impact the entire world'.
The unexpected missile attack on a second India-bound ship carrying Russian crude, just three weeks after the first, has complicated matters for domestic refiners. India now counts the Vladimir Putin-led nation as its biggest oil supplier, according to Paris-based market intelligence agency Kpler, and these attacks come on top of US sanctions since December, where vessels that bring crude to India are facing heightened scrutiny. Panama-registered Pollux, which loaded crude at the Sheshkaris oil terminal in the Russian port of Novorossiysk on January 24, was scheduled to deliver the medium, sour Urals grade to Paradip port on February 28.
'... are losing faith in the institutions of government, where people do not believe that the institutions of government operate according to the Constitution, within the confines of the law, where these institutions are seen to be representing a small faction of a particular community against all other (minority) communities.'
Most of India's oil supplies are expected to stay safe because of the country's good relations with both Russia and Iran. That would take care of over a third of India's supplies.
Saturday's drone attack on MV Chem Pluto came amid increasing concerns over various commercial vessels being targeted reportedly by Iran-backed Houthi militants in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden amid the Israel-Hamas conflict.
The Indian Navy has deployed task groups comprising frontline destroyers and frigates in the central and north Arabian Sea and augmented its force levels in the region to undertake maritime security operations in view of recent attacks on commercial vessels in key shipping lanes.
Difference of opinion cannot be construed as conflict, said India head coach Ravi Shastri as he sought to play down the speculation of a rift between captain Virat Kohli and his limited-overs deputy Rohit Sharma.
US authorities have been scrambling to establish how many Americans have been killed or taken hostage in the conflict.
Indian Navy's elite marine commandos on Friday rescued 21 crew members including 15 Indians from a bulk carrier in the North Arabian Sea and sanitised it in a swift operation while responding to an attempted hijacking of the Liberian-flagged vessel by around five-six armed personnel.
'The global situation is not very good.'
An Indian national, believed to have been injured in a bomb blast in Yemen's Aden, has succumbed to his injuries, defence sources said on Friday.
If things work out, it will be a great leap forward in the Indian-Iranian economic ties in the new phase of Iran's reintegration with the world market following the lifting of sanctions, says Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Hakki Pikkis are a semi-nomadic tribe, traditionally of bird catchers and hunters, from Karnataka. Their knowledge of the forest and traditional medicine is extensive and is prized by the Sudanese community.
Exports to India's key markets - the US, the United Arab Emirates, China, Singapore, Bangladesh and Germany - witnessed a sharp decline, resulting in a 12.69 per cent contraction in outbound shipments during the first month of the current financial year, commerce department data showed. India's biggest export market - the US - with 17 per cent share witnessed 17.16 per cent contraction at $5.9 billion in April. This was followed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that saw 22.09 per cent decline at $2.23 billion exports.
During an interaction at a conclave in New Delhi, he also said that the Indian Navy is seized of the docking of various PLA Navy ships at ports in Pakistan, and it is 'keeping a watch on it'.
India's imports of crude oil from Russia touched a new high of 1.64 million barrels per day in March and is now double of the purchases from Iraq - the nation's traditional top oil supplier. But the purchases appear to have plateaued as growth has slowed. Russia continued to be the single largest supplier of crude oil, which is converted into petrol and diesel at refineries, for a sixth straight month by supplying more than one-third of all oil India imported, according to energy cargo tracker Vortexa.
With developments like the Russia-China alliance and the rise of China in the Middle East, India's role has diminished though the India-Israel-US-UAE grouping may assume some importance in the future, observes Ambassador T P Sreenivasan.
'Despite the current tension at Doklam and the risk of escalation on the Himalayan land frontier, it is the Indian Ocean we need to worry about more,' says Nitin Pai.
The invitation for the meeting to India was extended by Qatari special envoy for conflict resolution Mutlaq bin Majed Al-Qahtani during his visit to the national capital last week.
The Bharatiya Janata Party's action against its two members for their controversial comments against Prophet Mohammed cap a series of statements from its top brass and also Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh chief Mohan Bhagwat that sought to distance their organisations from shrill and combative religious rhetoric, even as it has brought to fore the conflict within their wide sphere of support.
Badla, bhoots and a barrage of detective dramas bombard the streaming platforms this week. Sukanya Verma lists everything you can see or skip.
Biden said that the Saudi Crown Prince told him he was not "personally responsible" for Khashoggi's murder.
'India will want a lot of help from the US, but it's not going to want US troops.'
They all spoke of their disappointment at the decisions, given the historic moment of it being held in the Middle East.
State Bank of India, the nation's largest lender, has stopped processing transactions of Russian entities that have been sanctioned by the West over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, sources said. To effect this, SBI has issued a circular as it fears that any transaction with entities or sectors under sanction will invite sanction on it as well, sources said. No transactions involving entities, banks, ports or vessels appearing on a US, European Union or United Nations sanctions list would be processed irrespective of the currency of the transaction, they said. Payments due to such entities have to be processed by other mechanism rather than through the banking channel, sources added.
'Modi has visited all these three countries (the UAE more than once, inexplicably) but has left out Kuwait and Oman, the two Gulf countries that are closest to India in their political, cultural and civilisational ethos,' notes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
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